Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 27 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jan 2005
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 727
(S09W02) continues to trend towards a slow and steady decay. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 28 January. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 29 January with minor to major storming possible.
Periods of active to minor storm levels are possible on 30 January
from the continued effects of the anticipated high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 27 Jan 087
- Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 085/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 000/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 004/015-018/030-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/35/30
- Minor storm 01/20/15
- Major-severe storm 01/15/15
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/35/35
- Minor storm 10/40/20
- Major-severe storm 05/20/15
