Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jan 2004

By SpaceRef Editor

January 27, 2004

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jan 27 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Only a few, low-level,
B-class flares were observed. The solar disk is currently devoid of
sunspots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There may be a gradual increase in background and activity
levels with the return of old Region 536 (latitude S11) tomorrow (28
January).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with one active
period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind signatures indicate the
crossing of a solar sector boundary, with magnetic polarity
switching from a towards (negative) orientation to an away
(positive) configuration between 0500-1300 UTC. The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (28
January) as a positive polarity coronal hole is rotating into
geoeffective position. A decline to mostly unsettled with possible
isolated active periods is expected for the second and third days
(29-30 January).

III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan