Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Jan 2003

SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant events
occurred in the past 24 hours. One new active region, 273 (N06W18),
was born on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds
dropped to more normal levels near 450 km/s. Energetic electron
fluxes at geosynchronous orbit attained high values during the
interval.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the
period.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Jan 121
• Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 120/120/125
• 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 012/017
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 010/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 010/010-010/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan-30 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05