Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Feb 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
March 1, 2009
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Unspotted Region 1013 (N26W19) produced an A3 x-ray event at 27/0714Z with a subsequent slow moving, asymmetric CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at 27/0906Z. A 9 degree filament located at S38W46 was observed to have lifted off the disk between 26/2358Z to 27/1423Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period observed at middle latitudes at 27/1200Z. This activity was most likely produced by a low-latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole. During the summary period, solar winds speed gradually increased from about 400 km/s to near 650 km/s by 27/1200Z and maintained that velocity through the end of the period. During the elevated portion of the high speed flow, the Bz component of the IMF did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (28 February – 02 March). The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to be geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 27 Feb 069
  • Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 002/002
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 05/05/05
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/10
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.