Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity has been observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed has been increasing throughout the day up to about 560 km/s, indicating the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (28 February – 02 March). Isolated active periods are possible on 28 February due to the coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Feb 075
• Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 010/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01