Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 27 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 058 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. Region 564 (N14W42)
produced an M5.7 at 2230 UTC on the 26th. No CME activity was noted
with this eruption. The region continues to be active with several
point brightenings noted throughout the period. Region 565 (S04W21)
has remained unchanged since the 26th. Region 567 (S14E50) was
newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 564 continues to have the potential to produce
isolated major flaring through the 30th.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated periods of active levels at 0600 and 2100 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the 28th. Late on
the 29th and continuing through the 30th, a recurrent high speed
solar wind stream is expected to generate isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
- Class M 60/60/60
- Class X 20/20/20
- Proton 10/10/10
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 27 Feb 122
- Predicted 28 Feb-01 Mar 130/130/130
- 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 002/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 010/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar 008/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/30/30
- Minor storm 10/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/30/40
- Minor storm 10/15/25
- Major-severe storm 05/05/10
