Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Two B-class flares
occurred during the period from Region 1039 (S27E31); the largest
was a B7.6 at 1139Z. Region 1039 has grown during the past 24 hours
and is currently a 7-spot Dso-beta group, with an area of
approximately 100 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class event from
Region 1039.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days, with a slight chance
for an isolated unsettled period on day three (28-30 December).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 077
Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 078/079/080
90 Day Mean 27 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01