Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Dec 073
• Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 075/075/080
• 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 003/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec-30 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01