Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 August 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
August 27, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1100 (S20W91)
produced several small B-class x-ray events before rotating off the
west limb. Region 1101 (N12E34) remains magnetically stable and
quiet while growing in size. A CME associated with a lifted
filament was visible on SOHO LASCO leaving the southwest limb around
27/0900Z. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be very
low for the next 3 days (28-30 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and active conditions over
the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous obit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet with a chance for an isolated period of
unsettled to active for the next 3 days (28-30 August).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 073
Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 073/073/075
90 Day Mean 27 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.