Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed increased to approximately 670 km/s due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible active periods on 28 August due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 – 30 August.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Aug 069
• Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 010/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 008/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01