Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Aug 2003

SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 436 (N07W60)
continues to decline slowly as it nears the West edge of the solar
disk. New Region 446 (S22E36) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. A
single period of minor storming occurred at 1800 UTC. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
three days.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 27 Aug 126
• Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 125/125/125
• 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 008/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 012/012-012/012-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 20/20/20
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 25/25/25
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05