Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 27 Aug 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
August 27, 2002
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class X-ray flares
occurred. Regions 83 (S18W71), 85 (S08W37), and 87 (S08E06) remain
the most interesting sunspot groups on the visible disk. New Regions
91 (N06E37) and 92 (S19E04) were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A low-level M-class flare is possible in any of Regions
83, 85, or 87.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 161
Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 155/150/145
90 Day Mean 27 Aug 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug-30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/30
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.