Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New Region 1582 (S12E68)
rotated onto the southeast limb and produced the only C-flare of the
period; a long duration C1 at 26/1240Z. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed, measured at the
ACE spacecraft, increased from approximately 320 km/s to 450 km/s
while the total magnetic field increased from 5 nT to 9 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a slight chance for unsettled
periods during the forecast period (27 – 29 September). There is a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 139
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 145/150/150
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05