Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1109 (N21E14)
produced several B-class flares during the period and has grown in
both areal coverage and spot count. The region has maintained its
E-type sunspot classification and is a beta magnetic configuration.
New Region 1110 (N19W07) was numbered today and is magnetically
classified as an alpha group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 1109 is likely to produce C-class flares with a slight chance
for a M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. Unsettled levels were
observed at mid-latitudes during the period between 26/1200-1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels with isolated unsettled
periods for the next three days (27-29 September) due to the
continued influence of a high speed wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 084
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01