Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1027 (N24W21) has
shown little change and remains a simple beta group. Region 1026
(S34E05) is a spotless plage region today. No significant flares
were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An increase in solar wind speed,
density, and temperature were observed from the ACE spacecraft
around 26/1130Z. These signatures are an indication of a possible
weak co-rotating interaction region.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (27 September) due to
effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Predominantly quiet
conditions are expected for days two and three (28-29 September).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 072
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 072/070/070
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 006/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01