Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 27 September. Conditions for 28 – 29 September are expected to range from unsettled to active as a coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 26 Sep 070
• Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 005/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 004/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 006/008-012/015-015/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/40/40
• Minor storm 05/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/45/45
• Minor storm 10/20/20
• Major-severe storm 01/10/10