Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Sep 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
September 26, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04W07)
continues to grow and produce a series of low-level flare activity.
The disappearing solar filament which occurred yesterday at 0534 UTC
is apparently not Earth-directed, and should not impact as
previously expected.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 464 does harbor a slight chance for isolated M-class
flare activity, and an even slighter chance for an X-class event.
By the end of the day, it will reach a position which makes it a
very slight threat to produce an energetic proton event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole, which has induced a high-speed solar wind stream for
the last few days, is in its final stages, but continues to impact
the Earth’s magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the remainder
of today and into tomorrow. Then it is expected to drop off to
quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active for later in
day two and into day three. The high-speed stream currently
impacting the Earth’s magnetic field will continue to wane, but
still poses a threat to spike for a short period during day two.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep

  • Class M 40/40/40
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • bserved 26 Sep 131
  • Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 130/130/125
  • 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 016/028
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 020/018
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 020/030-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/35/35
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/35
  • Minor storm 25/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 25/20/10

SpaceRef staff editor.