Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E04), a
Dko/Beta-Delta spot group, remained the most magnetically complex
region, yet only produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/1607Z. The most
active region was an area of enhanced plage near S27W87, formerly
Region 1594, where three low-level C-class flares originated.
Region 1596 (N08W35) showed signs of umbral separation, and new
Region 1600 (N09W14) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next three days
(27-29 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained relatively
steady at 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field remained mostly positive, with minor deflections of +/-4 nT,
while the total field held steady at 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (27-29 October).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M 20/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 131
Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 135/130/115
90 Day Mean 26 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05