Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1117 (N21W15) produced
two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, the largest a C2.5
x-ray event at 25/2212Z. A CME (estimated plane-of-sky velocity 375
km/s) was observed off the southwest limb, first viewed on GOES-15
SXI imagery at approximately 26/0300Z. This CME was likely
associated with a B6.5 x-ray event at 26/0311Z from Region 1115
(S31W75). The CME appeared to be earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominately very low with a chance for C-class events and a slight
chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 1117.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels for the past
24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (27 – 28 October).
Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are
expected on day three (29 October) in response to the CME observed
on 26 October.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 086
Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 26 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 007/007-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01