Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions. The solar wind data observed at the ACE spacecraft indicates the presence of the coronal hole high speed wind stream. Speeds have averaged around 670 km/s with Bz fluctuations between +/- 4 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated active conditions due to the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 26 Oct 068
• Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 010/020
• Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 015/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 010/012-008/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/20
• Minor storm 15/10/15
• Major-severe storm 05/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/25
• Minor storm 20/15/20
• Major-severe storm 05/01/05