Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no spotted regions on the visible disk during the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 27 October. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective on 28 October. Active to minor storm conditions can be expected with the onset of the coronal hole. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 29 October.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 26 Oct 072
• Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 010/010-018/020-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/40/20
• Minor storm 10/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/10/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/45/25
• Minor storm 10/20/10
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05