Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Oct 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Oct 26 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. No sunspots were reported on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind speed is elevated at approximately 530 km/s due to a geoeffective coronal hole high speed wind stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible due to the ongoing effects of a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 26 Oct 072
• Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 070/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 017/019
• Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 010/012-010/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/35/35
• Minor storm 20/20/20
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05