Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 November 2011

By SpaceRef Editor
November 26, 2011
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 26 2201 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. A long duration C1 flare was observed at 26/0710Z in
conjunction with an eruptive filament channel near Region 1353
(N08W49). A full halo CME, first observed in C2 imagery at 26/0712Z,
was also associated with this event. The other regions on the disk
remained mostly stable and quiet throughout the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events, for the next
three days (27-29 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
At around 26/0840Z, signatures from the ACE spacecraft indicated
elevated levels of greater than 10 MeV protons. This increase was
associated with the eruptive filament channel, CME, and C1 flare
mentioned earlier. A greater than 10 MeV proton at geosynchronous
orbit began at 26/1125Z. Max flux for this event, thus far, was 54
pfu at 26/2055Z. This proton event was still in progress when this
report was issued.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27
November). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm conditions is expected on days two and three (28-29
November). These elevated conditions are the result of the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective
early on day two, and the arrival of today’s full halo CME late on
day two or early on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 90/10/01
PCAF in progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 133
Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 135/140/145
90 Day Mean 26 Nov 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 006/008-011/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/39/40
Minor storm 03/17/20
Major-severe storm 00/01/02
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/11/10
Minor storm 15/27/26
Major-severe storm 08/58/61

SpaceRef staff editor.