Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Nov 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active conditions. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated a continued influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind velocities reached a maximum of 651 km/s near the end of the period. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bt ranged from +6 to -5.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 26 November. Quiet conditions should return on 26-27 November as the high speed solar stream subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 26 Nov 068
• Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 011/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/05/05
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/05/05
• Minor storm 10/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01