Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Nov 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1.0 flare occurred from Region 822 at 26/0409 UTC on the west limb at approximately S09.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. On 28 and 29 November, isolated active periods are possible.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 26 Nov 081
• Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 008/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 005/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 005/008-008/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01