Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 26, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 26 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class flares
were observed in Region 508 (S18W18). This region continues to
exhibit some complexity while undergoing slow decay. Region 501
(N04, L=004) has quietly rotated around the west limb. Region 507
(N08W30) maintains considerable size and still appears to contain a
weak delta configuration; however, activity in this region remains
very low. New Region 513 (N09E71) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Though diminished greatly in size and complexity,
Region 508 still maintains potential for an isolated M-class event.
An M-class flare is also possible from Region 507.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
remains elevated, but is in gradual decline. The greater than 2MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods are possible at higher latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 26 Nov 171
  • Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 170/165/160
  • 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 009/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 007/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 008/010-008/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/30
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.