Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Events were limited to
small C-class flares observed through the period.  A new region was
numbered today as Region 203 (N08E71).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low.  Occasional C-class events continue to be possible from Region
197 (N24W84) and 198 (S18W61).  A chance for an isolated M-class
event is also possible from Region 198.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high
levels today.  The observed Afr for 25 Nov is estimated due to
missing data.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active to
minor storm conditions are possible for 27 Nov as a result of the
activity associated with the CME observed on 24 Nov.

III.  Event Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Nov 142
Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov  145/150/155
90 Day Mean        26 Nov 173

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  015/020-015/015-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov-29 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10