Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares
occurred during the period. A CME associated with a filament
eruption was observed in LASCO imagery off the southwest quadrant of
the solar disk, but does not appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (27-29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (27-29 May).
III. Event Probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 110
Predicted 27 May-29 May 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 26 May 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10