Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 May 2007
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The visible disk is spotless. A slow moving CME was observed in LASCO imagery off of the west limb and accompanied by a B1 flare at 26/1644Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 27 May and quiet to unsettled on 28 May. Conditions are expected to abate to quiet on 29 May as the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotates past its geoeffective position. The CME observed today from the west limb is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 27 May-29 May
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 26 May 068
- Predicted 27 May-29 May 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 26 May 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 009/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 012/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 012/015-006/010-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/20/20
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/30/25
- Minor storm 30/20/10
- Major-severe storm 15/10/01
