Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 885 (S12W38) produced a B5 flare at 25/2328Z. A halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery, beginning at 26/0006Z. Regions 887 (S12E64) and 888 (N05W64) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days (27-28 May). Unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on 29 May due to transient effects from today’s CME.

III. Event Probabilities 27 May-29 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 26 May 082
• Predicted 27 May-29 May 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 26 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 004/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 004/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 005/005-005/005-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/30
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05