Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 March 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Mar 26 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels. Region 1442
(N12W01) produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/0642Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-class flare. Old Region 1429 (N19, L=295) is
expected to return late on day 2 (28 March), further increasing the
possibility of an M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 27 March, increasing to unsettled to
active conditions on 28 and 29 March due to a solar sector boundary
followed by a negative polarity coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 25/40/55
Class X 05/10/15
Proton 01/05/10
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 102
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 006/005-013/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/25
Minor storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/30/35
Major-severe storm 05/45/30