Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 26, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 26 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
582 (N16E59) continued to show growth in sunspot coverage and
magnetic complexity. Although, this region was limited to minor
B-class flare production today. Region 574 (S04W65) has undergone
steady decay throughout the period. Region 578 (N15W34) showed a
slight decay in sunspot coverage. Region 581 (S03E53) exhibited
grow and now has sunspots in both polarities. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 582 has the potential to produce an
M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period was observed at the Boulder magnetometer
between 26/1500 and 1800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to be
geo-effective throughout the period with isolated minor storm
conditions possible, mostly at higher latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar

  • ass M 50/50/50
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 26 Mar 124
  • Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 125/120/115
  • 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 003/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 010/015-010/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 20/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.