Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 26 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
582 (N16E59) continued to show growth in sunspot coverage and
magnetic complexity. Although, this region was limited to minor
B-class flare production today. Region 574 (S04W65) has undergone
steady decay throughout the period. Region 578 (N15W34) showed a
slight decay in sunspot coverage. Region 581 (S03E53) exhibited
grow and now has sunspots in both polarities. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 582 has the potential to produce an
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period was observed at the Boulder magnetometer
between 26/1500 and 1800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to be
geo-effective throughout the period with isolated minor storm
conditions possible, mostly at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Cl
- ass M 50/50/50
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 26 Mar 124
- Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 125/120/115
- 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 003/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 008/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 010/015-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 20/20/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05