Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Mar 2003
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 321
(N05E51) produced a C2.2/Sf flare at 26/1710Z. This region has
continued to mature as evidenced by the development of a gamma
structure seen in the central portion of the spot complex. Region
319 (N13E13) was quiescent today, although there was notable growth
in the regions penumbral coverage. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 321.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. The Boulder
magnetometer recorded an active period between 26/0300 and 0600Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through the interval.
Isolated minor to major storm conditions may exist on days one and
two due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on day three.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 26 Mar 127
- Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 140/145/145
- 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 008/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/25/20
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
