Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1512 (S16E25, Dai/Beta)
was in a gradual growth phase during the period and produced a C1
x-ray flare as well as occasional optical subflares. New Region 1513
(N16E71, Hax/Alpha) was numbered and produced a C1/Sf flare. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (27 – 29 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to
minor storm periods detected at high latitudes. This activity was
associated with a minor increase in solar wind speeds (peak 496 km/s
at 26/0455Z) coupled with intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz
(maximum southward deflection -7 nT at 26/0113Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (27 – 28
June). Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (29 June) with a chance for active levels due to the
arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a coronal
hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 099
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 007/005-006/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/20