Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. No significant
flares were observed. Region 1236 (N16W92) is rotating off the west
limb today. Region 1241 (N18W32) remained a Bxo-beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period at high latitudes. Observations of solar wind
from the ACE spacecraft indicated speeds ranged from 595 km/s to 486
km/s, as the coronal hole high speed stream began to gradually
subside. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27
– 28 June). Quiet levels are expected on day three (29 June).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 090
Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 088/086/086
90 Day Mean 26 Jun 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 005/006-005/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01