Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
June 26, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 26 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare was
observed late in the period from a source area near N15 on the east
solar limb. The flare occurred at 26/2035Z. Several B-class flares
during the period were also attributed to this yet visible region in
H-alpha. Another full halo CME was observed today on SOHO/LASCO
imagery and it appears to be back-sided. The visible disk is
currently spotless. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. An active source region that is just beyond
the northeast limb appears to have the capability of producing
isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. Solar
winds speeds have dropped to 500 km/sec and it appears the weak
coronal hole is waning. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible on 28 June due to the CME activity seen
yesterday that was related to disappearing solar filaments.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 26 Jun 079
  • Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 080/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 009/011
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 010/010-012/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/20
  • Minor storm 05/10/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/20
  • Minor storm 05/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.