Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Jul 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
July 26, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jul 26 2206 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 791 (N13E09)
has produced several B-class flares during the last 24 hours. Three
backside CME’s were observed on LASCO imagery during the period.
None appear to be Earth directed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A chance for an isolated C-class event is possible from
Region 791.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with one period of
unsettled conditions at middle latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions
possible. These effects are possible as a recurrent coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 26 Jul 087
  • Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 090/100/105
  • 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 003/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 008/010-010/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.