Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Jul 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 26 2206 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 791 (N13E09)
has produced several B-class flares during the last 24 hours. Three
backside CME’s were observed on LASCO imagery during the period.
None appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A chance for an isolated C-class event is possible from
Region 791.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with one period of
unsettled conditions at middle latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions
possible. These effects are possible as a recurrent coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream moves into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 26 Jul 087
- Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 090/100/105
- 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 003/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 008/010-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
