Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Jul 2003
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Jul 2003
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Regions remain quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Solar
wind speeds began to increase today after 26/1830 UTC from around
400 km/s to above 560 km/s, with a sustained southward Bz. The
probable source of this high speed stream is a E-W oriented coronal
hole which is now rotating into a geoeffective location.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with periods of minor
storm conditions. Effects of the high speed solar wind should
persist through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
- Class M 20/20/25
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 26 Jul 103
- Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 105/110/120
- 90 Day Mean 26 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 008/011
- Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 020/025
- Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 020/030-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/45/45
- Minor storm 25/25/25
- Major-severe storm 15/15/15
