Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1402 (N29W72) produced
several C-class events, the largest a C7 flare at 26/0149Z. The
region also produced a long duration C6 flare at 26/0542Z. An
associated partial-halo CME was first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at
26/0436Z (plane-of-sky speed approx 1044 km/s). The CME appears to
be directed well north of the ecliptic plane and towards the STEREO
A spacecraft. It is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event on day one (27
January). Activity is expected to decrease to low levels on days two
and three (28-29 January) after Region 1402 rotates around the west
limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 10 MeV Proton event that began at 23/0530Z and reached a
maximum value of 6310 pfu at 24/1530Z, is still in progress.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (27-28
January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (29 January) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. The greater than 10 MeV Proton
event is expected to decrease below the 10 pfu threshold early on
day one (27 January).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 50/01/01
PCAF Yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 128
Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 26 Jan 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01