Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Jan 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
January 26, 2009
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Jan 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A recurrent enhancement in solar wind speed began late on 25 January. Solar wind speed increased from 280 km/s to about 380 km/s. A period of sustained southward Bz between 26/1000 – 1600Z produced the most disturbed periods.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Isolated active periods, mostly at high latitudes, are expected on January 27. Mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods are expected on January 28 and 29.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 26 Jan 070
  • Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 001/001
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 010/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/15/10
  • Minor storm 10/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/25/15
  • Minor storm 15/05/01
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.