Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Jan 2004

By SpaceRef Editor

January 26, 2004

Filed under Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA), Space Weather Solar-Geophysical Activity, US

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jan 26 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to two C-class events during
the past 24 hours. The first was a C6 at 25/2241 UTC which had the
greatest contribution from a flare in Region 543 (S17W89), although
Region 542 (N06W82) flared at the same time and also contributed to
the total flux. The second was a C1 at 0610 UTC from Region 542. All
three of the currently spotted regions on the disk (542, 543, and
544 at N03W76) will be rotating around the west limb in the next 24
hours. A CME was observed by LASCO off the southeast limb, but the
absence of disk activity strongly suggests a backside source for the
event.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There may be a gradual rise in background levels over
the next three days with the return of old Region 536 (latitude S11)
on 28 January.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24
hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours (27 January).
An increase to unsettled to active is expected on the 28th due to
possible effects from a favorably positioned, positive polarity
coronal hole. Conditions should return to mostly unsettled by the
third day (29 January).

III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan