Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Jan 2003

SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 268 (N15W42)
produced a C2.6 flare at 26/1040 UTC. Region 268 has shown some
decay in area coverage. Region 266 (S22W26) has grown in area
coverage and maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Some
weak polarity mixing was evident near the intermediate spots of
Region 266. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 270
(S04W36), Region 271 (S06W21), and Region 272 (S05E26).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
The majority of activity is expected to come from Region 266 and
Region 268.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Elevated solar
wind speed near 700 km/s combined with a Bz near negative 5 nT
resulted in active conditions.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Diminishing effects
from the coronal hole are expected to produce only unsettled
conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan

• Class M 25/25/25
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 26 Jan 125
• Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 125/125/130
• 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 019/028
• Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 018/018
• Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 015/015-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan-29 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/15/10
• Minor storm 10/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/25/20
• Minor storm 20/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01