Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1421 (N14W48) produced
a C1 flare at 26/1125Z. New flux emergence appeared to the west of
Regions 1423 (N17E29) and 1424 (N07E39) and were numbered Regions
1425 (N18E12) and 1426 (N10E12) respectively. Two CMEs were
observed during the reporting period; the first, observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 26/0200Z off the NE limb and the second at
26/0636Z off the NW limb. Neither are expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (27 –
29 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated active period
observed at high latitudes at 26/0900 – 1200Z. The >10 MeV proton
enhancement that began early on 25 February continued with a maximum
value of 4.6 pfu at 26/0055Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible on day 1 (27 February) as the 24 February CME is expected
to be geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions are expected on day 2 (28 February). Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on day 3 (29 February). There is a slight
chance for a >10 MeV proton event due to shock enhancement of the
proton levels on days 1 – 2 (27 – 28 February).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/10/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 107
Predicted 27 Feb-29 Feb 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 011/015-010/010-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 15/10/05