Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a single C1 x-ray event
from Region 1164 (N28E60) observed at 26/0813Z. The region continues
to rotate onto the disk and is currently classified as a D-type spot
group with a complicated beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region
1163 (N18E46) exhibited little change during the period producing
several moderate to high-level B-class events. New Region 1165
(S22E43) emerged on the disk as a simple bi-polar spot group and was
quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels for the next three days (27 – 28 February and 01 March).
A chance for M-class activity exists all three days from both
Regions 1163 and 1164.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for days one and two of
the forecast period (27 – 28 February). By day three (01 March),
geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels due to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 090
Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 092/092/092
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01