Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The only region on the visible disk is Region 983 (S06W54).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (27 February). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and three (28 – 29 February) with isolated minor storm levels possible at high latitudes. The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 26 Feb 071
• Predicted 27 Feb-29 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 007/008-010/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/25
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/30/30
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05