Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Feb 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Feb 26 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 564
(N14W27) produced an X1/2n major flare which occurred at 26/0203Z.
There was no indication of a CME in association with this flare on
LASCO imagery. Multiple B and C-class flares were observed
throughout the period. Many intermediate sunspots merged into a
single large penumbral magnetic delta complex. This region has
shown steady growth throughout the day. Region 565 (S05W07)
decreased in areal sunspot coverage although penumbra is now visible
in both polarities. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 564 has the potential to produce isolated
major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 29
February may experience active conditions due to a recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
- Class M 60/60/60
- Class X 20/20/20
- Proton 10/10/10
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 26 Feb 121
- Predicted 27 Feb-29 Feb 125/130/130
- 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 003/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 004/007
- Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 008/012-008/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-29 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/30
- Minor storm 05/05/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/30
- Minor storm 10/10/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
