Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions for 27 December due to a recurrent solar sector boundary crossing. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for 28-29 December.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 26 Dec 075
• Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 26 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 004/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 012/015-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/10/10
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/15/15
• Minor storm 20/05/05
• Major-severe storm 10/01/01