Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 26, 2003
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 528 (N10W31) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 26/1928Z
along with multiple lesser C-class flares that were observed
throughout the period. This region underwent little change today.
The beta-gamma magnetic complex remains intact. Region 532 (S11W11)
slightly increased in magnetic complexity and areal spot coverage
today. A minor B-class flare occurred in this region early in the
period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 528 continues to exhibit the
potential for producing low level M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
conditions possible throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 137
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 006/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 008/010-010/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.