Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 August 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare in the past
24 hours was a C1 at 1817Z from a region just around the east limb.
No CMEs observed in the past 24 hours are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated period of active and major storm levels at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions. A slight chance exists for high latitudes to
reach major storm levels on 27 August, increasing to a chance on 28
– 29 August. Increased activity is due to coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 113
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/25